I am. Not because the economy may not be picking up in some sectors, in some countries. No, that's not the reason (and a lot of "nots" - can you have triple negatives, gramatically speaking?). It's the lack of serious analysis about what has actually happened to the economy in the last 2 and a bit years that grates. Two weeks ago the BBC were discussing the idea that France and Germany were out of recession and even today, with the news that Japan had elected the (relatively) new Democratic Party to power, radio broadcasts were tinged with signs of optimism that the battered Japanese economy might be turning. Of course countries are going to turn eventually and spasmodically. Economies have been on their knees for the best part of 2 years, haven't they? Banks have been propped-up and meltdown was narrowly averted. That's the official, and not unreasonable, analysis, if I am not mistaken but we still get excited by a few green shoots.
We've planted 5 pumpkin seeds in the garden but only 2 are growing. Let's say we lose one to "natural selection" (or a fox attack) and the other makes it through to bear some fruit, possibly. That's probably the sum of it. In the UK we are waiting for the knight on a white charger of the housing market to pick up (and I am told it is, little by little) whilst at the same time we know all the political parties are planning very serious cuts to the public sector whilst unemployment rises monthly.
In this context the green shoots discussion is just a cover for a group of media hacks, politicians and economic analysts to excuse the complete lack of analysis that means...
...IT WILL ALL HAPPEN AGAIN.
Monday, 31 August 2009
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Richard