2009: Gloom and doom or hope and cope?

The Christmas and pre-New Year period is always a time for reflection and prediction and this Christmas is certainly no different. The online newspapers and economic blogs are awash with their takes on 2008 and their predictions for 2009. After the big stories of the collapse of major international investment banks, the deep problems with the car industry and various retail casualties, attentions are being focused on business and in particular, small business. Today, in an article on the BBC News Channel - Gloomy prediction for UK economy - the wildly different predictions for 2009 and beyond are explored. Within in the same article one commentator is speculating that "a contraction of between 5% and 10% could be on the cards, setting the UK economy back by five years" (CEBR managing economist Ben Read) whilst Chancellor Alistair Darling is reported to have said the UK will return to growth in the second half of 2009.

What to believe? A difficult one as our knee-jerk suspicions often lead us to distrust politicians. After all, what is there to gain for being a Chancellor who predicts gloom? Darling is probably still smarting from his prediction in August that the economy was in at a 60-year low and about to get worse. Perhaps, for the meantime, it is useful for politicians to step back from prophecy and concentrate on policy. Liberal Democrat Vince Cable might not agree, as I am sure he is still basking in the glory of being called "a twinkle-toed economic prophet" by his leader, Nick Clegg. After all Cable predicted a housing market crash back in 2003. Nostradamus watch out - Cable's about!

I've got a new idea for a tv show: "Strictly Policies". It could fill the Saturday evening gap left by Strictly Come Dancing and Alistair "Strictly" Darling would be a must-have participant. Try and keep him away...