The worst of the recession is behind us... Boo!

Apparently the worst of the recession is over http://bit.ly/6FyBF but quantitative easing (QE) is not working. There are mutterings of extending QE from £150bn to £200bn. There seems to be a desperate and mucky scrabble to declare "war is over" when no one seems to have come up with a peace plan. Who has got a viable long term solution out of the mess? It ain't over until the fat prime minister sings and that ain't going to happen.

Expenses debacle sideshow

We all want probity from our elected representatives. There you go, that's was both easy to believe and write. The storm over MPs expenses could be easily solved by adding £30,000 to their salaries, as Matthew Paris suggests. There are many technical solutions to ExpenseGate but the only political solution is for someone, anyone might do, to start fighting for leadership, for our hearts and minds and try and offer up real some solutions to the big issue of the day: the recession. It's May and summer is promising heat and back-to-back reporting on MPs receipts and expense claims, meanwhile the Bank of England is injecting another £50bn into the UK economy because quantitative easing isn't working.

Nobody knows anything

Well, that's the longest Uncrunched blog holiday I've ever taken. Sometimes silence speaks volumes. I just thought getting the G20 summit, the new financial year, Vince Cable's new book and a whole lot of "real work" in the "real world" behind me would be a sensible thing to do. It transpires that I was correct and now one can get back to being quite silly.

During the G20 summit, as our world economic problems were not being sorted out, I played a rather silly game which I called "There goes Obama!". Everytime my modest pile shook from the vibrations of a phalanx of military helicopters flying overhead (I happen to live near the Excel centre in East London, the venue for the G20 summit) me and the nippers would run to the window and shout "There goes Obama!" It really was quite amusing and far more engaging than what the Saviours of the World were planning for us down the road.

Rob Killick, a fellow blogger, has pointed out, "the full scale of the crisis has yet to be properly discussed." Killick neatly describes how the collision of the economic crisis with a crisis in political leadership has created a situation where no one can act decisively or even discuss the real problems we are facing. "Catch 22" doesn't quite capture the situation, how about "Vortex of Fear"?

...We are nearly two years into the toxic debt crisis and still the bank bailouts appear to be having very little impact. The weakness and isolation of the political elites has led them to scapegoat bankers, and by extension the whole financial system of capitalism, as the cause of the problem. This has in turn undermined the bailouts of the banks as investors have become wary of being seen to be making money out of the crisis and governments have become constrained about what they can do for fear of upsetting their voters.

UK After The Recession

Reading Killick's most recent post (Green shoots or reinflating the bubble) about how Obama is trying to spin us into a 'pint class half full' perspective on the economy, I was reminded of a great quote from the legendary Hollywood scriptwriter, William Goldman. In Goldman's great book, Adventures in the Screen Trade, he describes how difficult it is to predict success: "...nobody knows anything... nobody – not now, not ever – knows the least goddamn thing about what is or isn’t going to work at the box office." Now, of course, we all know something, but as Killick points out, in relation to the economy, we should focus less on predicting upturns and concentrate more, on discussing the main problems that underlie the recession and how we got into this fine mess (as Oliver Hardy would say).

[If you have never seen football manager, Martin O'Neill, explaining to Alan Shearer and Alan Hansen about William Goldman and why "nobody knows anything" as a retort to Shearer, who reminded O'Neill that he had wrongly predicted France to win the 2006 World Cup, then you should. It is a hilarious moment in football punditry. I would have provided a link to the BBC programme but it seems to have been removed from YouTube but this delightfully named blog refers in detail to the incident].

Quantitative Uneasiness

I can't say that I was inundated with entries for my Quantitative Easing reverse caption competition. That is probably due to two factors: Uncrunched doesn't really have a "readership" as such (yet) and the competition was just too daft (maybe the two are inter-related). Neither of which are going hold me back, so here is a silly montage and my caption is simply:

Drink me!

Let's hope the bankers will be running to the metaphorical debt bathroom on a more regular basis and will make their vital contribution to ending their lending constipation...

...I won't hold my breath - no, I will hold my breath and my nose, but I just can't see QE as the silver bullet that some hope it might be.

Reverse caption competition on the theme of 'Quantitative Easing'

We were warned in February and now it is a reality: 'quantitative easing' is upon us. It's going to be all around us like a mysterious financial spirit come to rescue our ailing economy. As the BBC explains, £75bn of new money is to be created by the Bank of England to stimulate lending but no one really knows if this will work. Apparently it didn't in Japan and is only just being tried in the US.

I need your captions for a cartoon/montage/satirical image that has not been created yet. Hence, a reverse caption competition. I am not proud to admit that 'quantitative easing', like 'naked short selling' before it (see previous montage in this blog), has been on my mind. The euphemistic lexicon of high finance and the recession fascinates me.

So, give me your captions for 'quantitative easing'. Obvious images come to mind and that is not a bad thing. Shirley Williams on tonight's Question Time played with a metaphor that I had also been thinking of. But I don't think I need to help you any more. What's in it for me you ask? Just the recognition of having created a great caption. No cash prizes I'm afraid (we are in a recession for Pete's sake!). Fill in a comment form below and please include a first name (or moniker) and a location from where you are writing so I can thank you. If you want to create a cartoon or montage and go the whole hog that's fine too.

Perhaps understanding what quantitative easing actually is is half the battle. The BBC is quick to remind us that what it is not is the physical printing of new money, oh no no no no no no no , as the Churchill dog might say:

Quantitative easing is sometimes incorrectly referred to as printing money, but the Bank will not expand the supply of money by making new banknotes. Instead, it will buy assets - such as government securities (gilts) and corporate bonds.

That's told you hasn't it. Anyway don't let me cramp your style just send me your captions and if you must describe what you think is going on in the cartoon then you can. Phew! Talk about difficult!

Lego isn't bricking it as Indiana has the whiphand

In Lego we trust or that's how the story goes in a downturn when the Danish toy maker reported a 51% rise in UK sales in 2008. It's all about the trust us consumers have in established and loved brands, apparently. They say it's the new Indiana Jones line wot done it. That's the formula everybody: a film tie-in with a product of timeless appeal. I admit it's an old idea but we need ingenuity to get us through this recession. How about:

Slumdog Chips - bruised and battered by the healthy eating fascists, let our chip shops rejuvenate their coffers and our palettes with spicy, colourful fried potato offerings of hope and renewal.

Benjamin Chocolate Buttons - imagine chocolate buttons that get smaller as they melt in your mouth whilst you actually grow younger...

... oh yes, and The Last Emperor's New Clothes - clothes so transparent that it actually looks like you are not wearing any. And they are completely free!

Please send me your film tie-in recession beaters, along with your name or moniker of choice and together we can beat this beast.

UK After The Recession

The blogosphere is buzzing with responses to the recession. A very welcome new addition is UK After The Recession. This blog's serious assessment of the factor's that have led to the UK's current economic predicament are discussed with a view to encouraging a debate 'about what happens after the recession'. Writer and business technologist, Rob Killick, poses a challenging question in his blog that he wants us all to engage with:

'Is it possible for genuine innovation and change to thrive inside a society which is wedded to risk aversion, state intervention and welfarism?'

His outlook feels refreshingly positive. Killick believes 'that the decline of the UK can be arrested, but that the barriers to growth and change are broader than generally realised.' Rob Killick shares an interest in the shifting of the balance of world economic power with another Robert and Uncrunched favourite, Mr. Peston of the BBC. In The UK economy after the recession-Part 1 Killick starts to explore a theme that is followed in later posts about how:

'The decline of manufacturing in the west relative to the east has created a disequilibrium which underlies the global credit crisis.'

We are not faffing around with bloomin bankers here, this is trying to get to the heart of our economic malaise - a theme that Peston addresses today in his analysis of the significance of 'today's historic investment of $19.5bn by Chinalco - a giant Chinese resources group - in Rio, the metals and minerals group.'

Uncrunched welcomes these future driven blogs and will continue to provide the light touch so everything can be kept in perspective. Have you heard the one about the former banker, the regulator and the prime minister?